THBT Viktor Orban will decide not to run for PM in the 2026 Hungarian election

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Motion:

THBT Viktor Orban will decide not to run for PM in the 2026 Hungarian election.




Proposition:

  • PM Viktor Orban has already tarnished his reputation in their voters' eyes by his ill-fated decisions and scandals. No matter which aspect of his party's agenda comes up in a conversation, the majority of voters immediately associate Hungarian politics with the person of Viktor Orban. This has eventually led to a drop in the popularity of Fidesz in independent polls. Therefore, he may relinquish his position for the benefit of his party so that Fidesz is still in contention for winning the upcoming elections.
  • Indeed, Orban might have the strategic incentive to relinquish no sooner does the Tisza Party win the 2026 Hungarian elections, than he will be put on trial for treason, bribery etc... based on the legal investigations already ongoing. Needless to say, he seeks to prevent Tisza from winning and the only way to do so is to get his party into a better position without him as PM.
  • According to most independent polls, the Tisza Party has gained grounds against Fidesz and has become the most popular party in the country. Based on this, Viktor Orban might not wish to go down to a disastrous defeat. Preferably, he wants to be remembered as someone who stepped down as PM for the benefit of his country. If he did so, his party could demonstrate that they are willing to improve and reflect on their shortcomings.
  • PM is not the only position one may take on, so he might later choose to have another position. By doing so, Orban can still hold grip on power behind the scenes, for example, as VP of the party.
  • By and large, it has been a problem for years that Fidesz is less popular with younger voters. So, drawing on the example of the Trump administration, it is in his party's interest to appoint a younger candidate for PM, who might resonate better with younger voters and gather wider support.
  • Nevertheless, it is crucial for Fidesz that Orban doesn't depart from Fidesz and remain VP. Over the course of his 5 tenures as PM, he has established political relationships - especially with the US - that might be of great help to his party. He can still rely on his former ties as VP. For example, his marketing team may help Fidesz get across their narrative, and more importantly, familiarize their voters with the new candidate for PM, 11 months before the 2026 elections.


Opposition:

  • PM Viktor Orbán's ego is so inflated that he is too vain to admit his defeat against his political adversary, Péter Magyar.
  • Orban's lack of awareness of his mental state is the reason why he fails to admit his defeat. Unable to reflect on his ill-fated decisions, he is unwilling to give up his position as PM.
  • He won't step back from running as PM as he knows he can rely on his close ties with the republican administration of the US. So far, he has put everything on his long-standing relationship with Donald Trump. Supposedly, the US might try to interfere in the Hungarian elections and subvert the polls in favour of Fidesz.
  • Furthermore, Orban is not likely to back out from the 2026 elections as he has been PM for 15 years. During this time, he has gathered massive support, especially from the older generation, who count on him. Therefore, he might expect a lot of over-60 voters to cast their ballots, accordingly. I guess the elderly crave Viktor Orban, and thus, are less likely to vote for another candidate appointed as PM out of the blue.
  • Practically speaking, replacing Viktor Orban is not a viable option. Doubtless, he will hold a tight grip on his power no matter what. On top of this, his party can't even put him under external pressure as he can easily cleanse his political opponents who are his way.
  • Even if Orban were replaced by another candidate, Fidesz couldn't reframe their narrative in 11 months until the elections. It might be too late for the incumbent party to introduce another candidate to their voters and face political defeat. Obviously, this is something that Fidesz wants to avoid at all costs. For this reason, the ruling party may stick to Viktor Orban and substantiate their narrative with a distorted interpretation of his pursuit as a politician.

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